The MCAS and the Dropout Rate
Louis Kruger, Psy.D.
kruger@neu.edu
High School seniors were first required to pass the MCAS exams in order to receive their diplomas during the 2002-2003 school year. Since that time the overall dropout annual dropout rate has remained relatively stable. For grades 9 to 12, the annual dropout rates were 3.3% and 3.4% in 2002-2003 and 2007-2008, respectively. Thus, from examining the overall dropout rate it would seem that the MCAS diploma requirement has had little or no effect on high school students’ decisions to drop out of high school. However, as is often the case, overall numbers can mask the impact that a policy has on subgroups. There are three sources of data that support a connection between the MCAS and the dropout rate for vulnerable subgroups: (1) the increase in the dropout rates for the subgroups who most often fail the MCAS, (2) the dramatic increase in the dropout rate for students who have failed the high school version of the MCAS one or more times, and (3) a rigorous research study, which provides evidence for a causal relationship between failing the highs school MCAS and the on-time graduation rate.
1. The table below provides data on the increases in the annual dropout rates between 2002-2003 and 2007-2008 for two subgroups: students with limited English proficiency and students with disabilities. These two groups tend to fail the high school MCAS exams at higher rates than other groups. For the class of 2007-2008, the pass rates for students with limited English proficiency and students with disabilities on the MCAS high school tests during the 10th grade administration were respectively 50% and 34% lower than the other members in their cohort group. Thus, it is not surprising that these two groups have had the sharpest increases in dropout rates since 2002-2003.
|
Subgroup |
2002-2003 dropout rate |
2007-2008 dropout rate |
Increase in number of annual dropouts* |
|
Limited English Proficiency |
6.1% |
8.8% |
292 |
|
Students with Disabilities |
4.6% |
5.5% |
400 |
2. The impact of the MCAS diploma requirement on struggling students’ decision to drop out seems to be accelerating. In 2003-2004, the dropout rate for 12th grade students who had not passed all the MCAS exams was 16.3%. In 2007-2008, the dropout rate for the same group had more than doubled to 34.6%. As of the 2007-2008 school year, if a student had not passed all the MCAS tests by the 12th grade, he / she was 13 times more likely to dropout than a student who passed all the exams.
3. Papay, Murnane, and Willett’s (2008) study provide evidence of a causal connection between failing the high school MCAS math test and the high school graduation rate. They examined two groups of students: one group who just barely failed the high school MCAS math test and a second group, who barely passed the same test. Because these two groups of students’ scores were statistically indistinguishable from each other and well within the test’s margin of error, it allowed the researchers to isolate the effect of failing or passing the MCAS on the students’ perseverance in school. The results indicated that whereas failing the MCAS math test did not decrease the graduation rate for suburban students, low-income urban students were eight percent less likely to graduate if they failed the MCAS.
In summary, the above three sources of data provide compelling evidence that Massachusetts high stakes testing program is increasing the dropout rates for some of the most vulnerable students.
References
Massachusetts Department of Education (2009). High School Dropouts 2007-08: Massachusetts Public Schools. Retrieved November 30, 2009 from http://www.doe.mass.edu/infoservices/reports/dropout
Massachusetts Department of Education (2008). Progress Report on Students Attaining the Competency Determination Statewide and by School and District: Classes of 2008 and 2009. Retrieved November 30, 2009 from http://www.doe.mass.edu/mcas/2008/results/CD.pdf
Massachusetts Department of Education (2005). Dropouts in Massachusetts Public Schools: 2003-04. Retrieved November 30, 2009 from http://www.doe.mass.edu/infoservices/reports/dropout
Papay, J. P., Murnane, R. J., & Willett, J. B. (2008). The consequences of high school exit examinations for struggling low-income urban students: Evidence from Massachusetts. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research. Retrieved March 21, 2009 from http://www.doe.mass.edu/research/reports/papay-murnane-willett.doc
* Increase in number of dropouts is relative to 2007-2008 enrollments. Although the overall trends are evident in the above table, the reader should treat the change in numbers as estimates because the Massachusetts Department of Education made two modifications to their method calculating the dropouts between 2005 and 2007.